Los Angeles has long been a city where real estate defies expectations, and in the wake of recent wildfires, the market is once again proving its resilience. Just two months after devastating fires tore through Pacific Palisades and Altadena, what many expected to be a slow recovery has instead turned into a real estate gold rush. Scorched land parcels are hitting the market at a rapid pace, with buyers moving just as quickly to snatch them up—often at or above their pre-fire valuations.
As a luxury real estate agent specializing in high-value transactions, I’ve seen my fair share of market fluctuations. But this—this is different. Investors, developers, and homebuilders aren’t just cautiously entering the market; they’re coming in fast, often with all-cash offers, and driving land prices higher than anyone anticipated.
Historically, post-disaster real estate markets experience a slow climb back to stability. Many expect a drop in value, hesitant buyers, and reluctant sellers still weighing their options. But in Pacific Palisades and Altadena, the usual rules don’t seem to apply. Early estimates suggested land values could drop as much as 50% after the fires. Instead, we’re seeing the opposite—some land parcels are appreciating at a rapid rate. In Pacific Palisades, the Riviera neighborhood, one of the city’s most exclusive enclaves, has seen land values increase by more than 10% since the fires.
In Altadena, the trend is even more dramatic. Before the fires, vacant land was selling at an average of $22 per square foot. Fast-forward two months, and the first four lot sales have closed at an average of $69 per square foot, with some pending sales expected to close at $99 per square foot—a staggering 300% increase. The demand isn’t coming from typical homebuyers—it’s coming from investors and developers who see opportunity in the aftermath. Many of them are betting that these neighborhoods, once rebuilt, will be even more desirable than before.
For many homeowners who lost everything, selling isn’t a choice—it’s a necessity. Even those with solid insurance policies are facing financial realities that make rebuilding an uphill battle. Construction costs in Los Angeles have skyrocketed, with estimates ranging from $400 to $1,000 per square foot, depending on materials, architecture, and contractor availability. Many insurance payouts don’t even come close to covering the full expense. The rebuilding process is a nightmare of delays, with permitting alone taking months or even years. Add in the fact that homeowners still have to pay their mortgage while also covering temporary housing costs, and selling starts to look like the only viable option.
The reality is, not everyone wants to go through the financial and emotional toll of rebuilding. Some fire victims simply don’t want to relive the trauma of the wildfires. Others know they can’t afford to juggle rent on a temporary place while still paying for a property they can’t even live in. Money today is better than money tomorrow, and for many, the only logical move is to walk away and let someone else take on the burden of rebuilding.
The buyers stepping in aren’t large corporations or institutional investors. They’re small-to-midsize developers, independent builders, and mom-and-pop investors who recognize that burned land in prime Los Angeles neighborhoods is a rare opportunity. They’re making moves quickly, frequently offering all cash to secure properties before prices rise even further. Their plan? Either flip the land itself or build new homes designed to meet the city’s growing demand for fire-resistant, high-end properties.
While rising land values might seem like good news, they are also reshaping communities in ways that not all residents welcome. One of the biggest concerns is in Altadena, a historically Black neighborhood where 81% of Black residents own their homes—nearly double the national average. Many fear that investors, builders, and wealthier buyers will price out longtime homeowners, transforming the area into another high-end L.A. enclave that loses its identity in the process. This fear has sparked the “Altadena Not for Sale” campaign, a community-led effort to prevent outside investors from buying up burned lots. Residents have launched fundraising efforts, placed protest signs in their yards, and are actively fighting to help uninsured and underinsured homeowners rebuild instead of sell.
The big question on everyone’s mind: Is this a temporary buying frenzy, or are we witnessing the start of a long-term shift in L.A.’s real estate market? Looking at past trends, Los Angeles real estate rarely stays down for long. Even with high mortgage rates, economic uncertainty, and the unpredictability of climate disasters, demand remains strong. In Pacific Palisades, home values dropped 5% in December from the previous year, but land prices are already rebounding. Altadena was one of the few Southern California markets that saw home values rise by more than 3% before the fires—a strong indicator that demand will continue.
For investors and developers, the window of opportunity is closing. As more land sells and the rebuilding process begins, prices are only expected to rise. Those who get in now stand to gain the most. The market is shifting fast, and those who understand its nuances will be the ones who come out ahead. If you’re a homeowner weighing your options, an investor looking for opportunities, or a developer trying to secure prime land before values climb even higher, now is the time to act.
The Los Angeles real estate market is never predictable—but one thing is certain: it never stays quiet for long.
For exclusive off-market opportunities and high-value land deals in Pacific Palisades, Brendan Brown and his team are your trusted experts in Los Angeles luxury real estate. Let’s strategize your next move. Contact Brendan Brown today at 310-926-0028 or [email protected] to discuss property or land deals in Pacific Palisades.
